Ninety percent of wildfires are caused by humans.
Not lightning strikes, not volcanic eruptions, just mundane, everyday, run-of-the-mill negligence. Laziness. Oafishness. Tomfoolery.
The campfire left unattended. Embers not properly extinguished. A used cigarette flicked from a car window. The spark that devours thousands of acres usually begins with someone thinking, "It's just a small fire. What's the worst that could happen?"
If you've ever built a campfire, you know the hierarchy of fuel. I'll admit I hadn't started a proper fire in years until my girlfriend and I paid a visit to a log cabin. You start with tinder: dry grass, paper, birch bark. Nature's nick-nacks and other dross. Then pile on some kindling: twigs, small sticks, anything thinner than your thumb. Only once those catch do you add the larger fuel: logs that will burn for hours.
The forest fire that destroys entire communities starts with a twig. Most things of magnitude start equally small.
The mortgage crisis that collapsed the global economy began with individual loan officers approving mortgages for people who couldn't afford them. One twig at a time.
We have a cognitive bias toward dramatic causes for dramatic events. Surely something as devastating as a forest fire or a global financial crisis must have an equally dramatic origin? But the truth is far more mundane and far more unsettling.
It starts with someone thinking: "I'm just one person. What difference does my small action make?" The answer, when multiplied across millions, is: all the difference in the world.
Consider your own life. The habits that shape your health weren't formed in a single dramatic moment. They accumulated, twig by twig: the extra snack here, the skipped workout there, the 'just one more episode' that steals an hour of sleep.
The same applies to relationships. Affairs don't begin in hotel rooms. They begin with a text message that goes slightly beyond friendly. A lunch that lasts a little too long. A confidence shared that should have stayed within the marriage. Twig by twig, until the whole forest is ablaze.
This metaphor extends to organisations too. Corporate scandals rarely begin with someone deciding to commit fraud. They begin with small ethical compromises: rounding up a number here, omitting a detail there, looking the other way when something doesn't quite add up.
The most dangerous phrase in any organisation is: "That's just how things are done here." It's the equivalent of leaving a campfire unattended and assuming the forest will be fine.
The next time you're tempted to make a half-hearted contribution, remember: somewhere, a forest is burning because someone couldn't be bothered to put out their campfire.
