There's a popular quote frequently attributed to Bill Gates:
"People overestimate what they can get done in a year and underestimate what they can get done in five years" — Bill Gates
In a nutshell, we are highly optimistic about things in the short term, prioritising strategies that can get us wins quickly.
And we are equally pessimistic in the long term, failing to appreciate the capacity for the future to be far wilder than we imagine. You see this in the end-of-history effect and other forms of hyperbolic discounting.
A few weeks ago, I shared thoughts on how to cut down time and be aggressive with progress—but today I want to talk about how pessimism could be wielded intentionally.
Let's turn back to the "two months vs two years" paradigm I last shared with you, but this time from the other side of the coin:
Many of the things we desperately wish could take two months would be better off considered on a two-year horizon.
We want to make money fast, lose weight quick, and find happiness in a hurry. The problem is that searching for ease can lead to more hardship.
The crash diet leads to piling on weight. The get-rich-quick scheme turns into a gaping hole in your savings, pension, and your child's college fund.
When you find yourself compelled towards a short cut or quick win, try this thought exercise:
What approach would guarantee this outcome over the next two years?
This changes our frame, and the wording is specific.
If you need to lose 10kg in two months, you'll dive deep into the latest ridiculous fad. But to guarantee that you lose that amount in two years wouldn't require anything drastic. To be absolutely certain it happened, you would only need to make small, consistent contributions over a long period of time.
It could be as easy as dropping sugar from your coffee or walking an extra mile on your commute each day. You could make one small change, and over time, the results would take care of themselves.
The same applies to wealth: you could leap into the latest pump-and-dump stock hoping you're not left holding the bag, or you could guarantee a long-term win by slightly increasing (or starting) your monthly ETF investment.
Success in the long run rarely requires massive and wholesale shifts. It only asks for a usual effort over an unusual period of time.
Here are some strategies to adopt a "two-year" mindset:
Sustainable habits: Focus on developing routines and behaviours that you can maintain consistently over a long period. Small, daily actions compound over time.
Systems over goals: Instead of fixating on end results, design systems that naturally lead to desired outcomes. This shifts focus from short-term achievements to long-term progress.
Resilience planning: Anticipate obstacles and setbacks. Build in redundancies and contingencies to ensure your progress isn't derailed by unexpected challenges.
Incremental improvement: Embrace the power of marginal gains. Seek to improve by just 1% regularly, knowing these small improvements compound dramatically over time.
Strategic patience: Resist the urge for immediate results. Learn to find satisfaction in the process and small wins along the way.
Regular reflection: Set aside time periodically to review progress, reassess goals, and adjust your approach. This ensures you stay on track without becoming rigid.
