Hunting for Black Swans

"Assumptions are dangerous things to make, and like all dangerous things to make -- bombs, for instance, or strawberry shortcake -- if you make even the tiniest mistake you can find yourself in terrible trouble," writes Lemony Snicket.

This whimsical literary reference underscores a sobering truth: assumptions, often unnoticed, can be our silent saboteurs.

In 1898, the USS Maine exploded in Havana Harbor, leading to the loss of 266 lives. The prevailing assumption, fuelled by sensationalist media, was that a Spanish mine had caused the disaster, leading to the Spanish-American War. However, a 1976 investigation suggested that the explosion was likely due to an internal fault on the ship.

The false assumption was readily accepted because it fit what people were already incentivised to believe.

In the aftermath of the USS Maine, we see the grim power of unchecked assumptions. But such fallacies aren’t confined to the pages of history; they permeate our everyday lives, often in far subtler ways.

Consider the peculiar case of the ‘black swan’ – a term popularised by philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb to encapsulate the concept of an event that is both unpredictable and carries massive implications.

For centuries, Europeans had assumed that all swans were white. It was a ‘known’ fact, until 1697 when Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh stumbled upon black swans in Australia. The sighting not only upended a zoological fact but also instilled a philosophical realisation about the nature of knowledge and uncertainty.

You see, the phrase 'black swan' preceded the discovery of them by about 1500 years. People used the phrase 'black swan' to describe something fantastical or absurd, much like 'flying pigs' or 'getting blood from a stone'.

In the first century CE, Roman satirist Juvenal referred to a good wife as a “rare bird in the earth, and very like a black swan”. - ​The Conversation​

Just like the unexpected black swan, our assumptions often go unchallenged until an unambiguous reality contradicts them. The problem arises when these assumptions, unchecked and unverified, guide our decisions or form our beliefs.

In the realm of cognitive psychology, the term ‘confirmation bias’ describes our tendency to seek and favour information that aligns with our preconceptions while disregarding or downplaying conflicting evidence. This bias can solidify assumptions into seemingly immutable truths.

Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman’s work in behavioural economics further amplifies this, demonstrating how such biases often lead us to ignore statistical realities, favouring our assumptions instead.

Guarding against Black Swans

So, how can we guard against the black swans and confirmation biases in our lives? How can we ensure we’re not setting a course for disaster based on faulty maps of reality? It starts by developing a habit of scrutinising our assumptions, of fostering a state of intellectual humility.

Consider the practice of ‘red teaming’ employed by organisations and militaries worldwide. The sole purpose of a ‘red team’ is to challenge prevailing assumptions, stress-test strategies, and expose blind spots. By playing the devil’s advocate, they help ensure that critical decisions are not based on unexamined assumptions.

In our personal lives, we can adopt a similar strategy by developing our ‘inner red team’. Here’s a simple three-step checklist to get you started:

1. Investigate the Origins: "Where did this belief come from and what evidence supports it?"
2. Challenge the Status Quo: "What credible evidence or perspectives might contradict this belief?"
3. Plan for Revision: "What would it take to change or update this belief, and how can I remain open to this possibility?"

Apply that to all the beliefs that underpin your worldview. This is a process of ​Bayesian Thinking​.

By continuously updating your assumptions, you can embrace a clearer, more nuanced understanding of the world.

As the philosopher John Locke put it:

"New opinions are always suspected, and usually opposed, without any other reason but because they are not already common."

Don't let hidden assumptions distort your perspective.

Lift the veil, expose your blind spots, and find true clarity.