Forget about the outcome

According to Annie Duke, when we're judging from a distance, the way we typically measure the quality of a choice is to look at the results. If the outcome is negative, we infer that the decision was also negative, and vice versa. We tend to overlook the importance of luck in the equation.

Self-judgment, on the other hand, tends to be biased in our favour. If the result is fantastic, it's because we're fantastic. We want the blame to be placed somewhere else when anything unpleasant happens. As a result, we tend to place blame on a variety of factors.